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Slimane vs ES Zarzis — Cup 2019

Slimane
Slimane
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzisadvanced
H. Mbarek 61'
Y. Rached 82'
Y. Khemiri 80'
6/1/2022CupCup · Round of 32Stade de Soliman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slimane24%
×Draw29%
ES Zarzis47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slimane
0.85
ES Zarzis
1.30

ES Zarzis creates 53% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Slimane
1.00
ES Zarzis
0.86

allows per match

Slimane
1.75
ES Zarzis
0.71

finishing

Slimane+0.00on par
ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slimane ↓

ES Zarzis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Slimane or draw
53%
Slimane or ES Zarzis
71%
Draw or ES Zarzis
76%

Winning margin

Slimane wins by 2+
8%
ES Zarzis wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Slimane 1+ goals
57%
Slimane 2+ goals
21%
Slimane 3+ goals
5%
ES Zarzis 1+ goals
73%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
37%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slimane (draw refunded)
34%
ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slimane at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

ES Zarzis away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slimane attack 1.00 + ES Zarzis defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

ES Zarzis attack 0.86 + Slimane defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slimane scores more
24%
level
29%
ES Zarzis scores more
47%

ES Zarzis at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
H. Mbarek
80'
Y. Khemiri
82'
Y. Rached

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slimane vs ES Zarzis

ES Zarzis beat Slimane 2-1 in Cup on June 1, 2022.

Goals: H. Mbarek (61'), Y. Khemiri (80'), Y. Rached (82').

The match was played at Stade de Soliman in Sulayman.