ES Zarzis 1–3 AS Soliman: Result & Stats

ES Zarzis

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

AS Soliman

I. Nshuti 45'

K. Sowe 87' (pen)

M. Haddad 42' (pen)

J. Diarra 10'

9/28/2025

League #202 · Round 8Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

ES Zarzis45%

×Draw31%

AS Soliman24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES ZarzisExpected goals in this matchAS Soliman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.74

ES Zarzis

1.15

AS Soliman

0.74

ES Zarzis creates 55% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 32 away

1.08

creates per match

0.63

0.85

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

ES Zarzis

1.08

AS Soliman

0.63

allows per match

ES Zarzis

0.85

AS Soliman

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par

AS Soliman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

AS Soliman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw

76%

ES Zarzis or AS Soliman

69%

Draw or AS Soliman

55%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+

20%

AS Soliman wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals

68%

ES Zarzis 2+ goals

32%

ES Zarzis 3+ goals

11%

AS Soliman 1+ goals

52%

AS Soliman 2+ goals

17%

AS Soliman 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)

66%

AS Soliman (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 59 matches

AS Soliman away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 1.08 + AS Soliman defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

AS Soliman attack 0.63 + ES Zarzis defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ES Zarzis scores more

45%

level

31%

AS Soliman scores more

24%

ES Zarzis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

16'

21'

41'

42'

M. HaddadPenalty

45'

L. Rjili

45'

I. Nshuti

64'

M. Jertila← A. Ben Dhiaf

71'

K. Kassab← M. Chouchane

71'

A. Tajourii← O. Stanley

83'

W. Issaoui← M. Haddad

83'

84'

84'

86'

86'

87'

K. SowePenalty

90+7'

M. Ben Cherifia

90+13'

I. El Abed← P. Mbarga Ngankou

ES

AS

1

15

17

27

31

3

6

▼

Ngankou

13

Ammar

9

⚽

Sowe

10

⚽A

▼

Haddad

24

⚽

▼

32

20

28

31

33

5

▼

Chouchane

10

Coumbassa

17

▼

Stanley

7

▼

Dhiaf

19

⚽

Nshuti

29

Rahmani

Manager: H. Jabnoun

64'▲M. Jertila←▼A. Ben Dhiaf

71'▲K. Kassab←▼M. Chouchane

71'▲A. Tajourii←▼O. Stanley

ES Zarzis substitutes

1Taleb23Sghaier24Mokhtar35Ghouma13Kassab15Labidi3Laariadh11Jertila27Tajourii

Manager: S. Zarrouk

83'▲W. Issaoui←▼M. Haddad

83'▲D. Jebli←▼J. Diarra

90+13'▲I. El Abed←▼P. Mbarga Ngankou

AS Soliman substitutes

22Nsibi2Jouidi7Ferchichi8Issaoui14Abed21Mesbah11Belaili19Kamoun20Jebli