Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town — Premier Division 2019

Sligo Rovers
Sligo Rovers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Longford Town
Longford Town
11/1/2021Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 30The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sligo Rovers58%
×Draw24%
Longford Town18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sligo Rovers
1.68
Longford Town
0.82

Sligo Rovers creates 105% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sligo Rovers
1.19
Longford Town
0.61

allows per match

Sligo Rovers
1.04
Longford Town
2.17

finishing

Sligo Rovers+0.00on par
Longford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sligo Rovers ↓

Longford Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sligo Rovers or draw
82%
Sligo Rovers or Longford Town
76%
Draw or Longford Town
42%

Winning margin

Sligo Rovers wins by 2+
32%
Longford Town wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sligo Rovers 1+ goals
81%
Sligo Rovers 2+ goals
50%
Sligo Rovers 3+ goals
24%
Longford Town 1+ goals
56%
Longford Town 2+ goals
20%
Longford Town 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sligo Rovers (draw refunded)
76%
Longford Town (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sligo Rovers at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 129 matches

Longford Town away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sligo Rovers attack 1.19 + Longford Town defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.68

Longford Town attack 0.61 + Sligo Rovers defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sligo Rovers scores more
58%
level
24%
Longford Town scores more
18%

Sligo Rovers at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sligo Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town

Sligo Rovers beat Longford Town 1-0 in Premier Division on November 1, 2021.

The match was played at The Showgrounds in Sligo.