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Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers — Premier Division 2019

Longford Town
Longford Town
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sligo Rovers
Sligo Rovers
7/3/2021Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 19Bishopsgate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Longford Town29%
×Draw27%
Sligo Rovers44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Longford Town
1.10
Sligo Rovers
1.41

Sligo Rovers creates 28% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 129 away

creates per match

Longford Town
0.61
Sligo Rovers
1.04

allows per match

Longford Town
1.78
Sligo Rovers
1.59

finishing

Longford Town+0.00on par
Sligo Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Longford Town ↓

Sligo Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Longford Town or draw
56%
Longford Town or Sligo Rovers
73%
Draw or Sligo Rovers
71%

Winning margin

Longford Town wins by 2+
11%
Sligo Rovers wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Longford Town 1+ goals
67%
Longford Town 2+ goals
30%
Longford Town 3+ goals
10%
Sligo Rovers 1+ goals
76%
Sligo Rovers 2+ goals
41%
Sligo Rovers 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Longford Town (draw refunded)
40%
Sligo Rovers (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Longford Town at home — creates 0.61, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

Sligo Rovers away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.59 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Longford Town attack 0.61 + Sligo Rovers defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sligo Rovers attack 1.04 + Longford Town defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Longford Town scores more
29%
level
27%
Sligo Rovers scores more
44%

Sligo Rovers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sligo Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers

Sligo Rovers beat Longford Town 1-0 in Premier Division on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Bishopsgate Stadium in Longford Town.