Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk — Premier Division 2019

Sligo Rovers
Sligo Rovers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dundalk
Dundalk
E. Chapman 76' (pen)
W. Waweru 69'
R. Benson 24' (pen)
9/21/2024Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 31The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Sligo Rovers38%
×Draw28%
Dundalk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sligo Rovers
1.21
Dundalk
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 129 home / 111 away

creates per match

Sligo Rovers
1.19
Dundalk
1.19

allows per match

Sligo Rovers
1.04
Dundalk
1.23

finishing

Sligo Rovers+0.00on par
Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sligo Rovers ↓

Dundalk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sligo Rovers or draw
67%
Sligo Rovers or Dundalk
72%
Draw or Dundalk
62%

Winning margin

Sligo Rovers wins by 2+
16%
Dundalk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sligo Rovers 1+ goals
70%
Sligo Rovers 2+ goals
34%
Sligo Rovers 3+ goals
12%
Dundalk 1+ goals
67%
Dundalk 2+ goals
30%
Dundalk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sligo Rovers (draw refunded)
53%
Dundalk (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sligo Rovers at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 129 matches

Dundalk away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sligo Rovers attack 1.19 + Dundalk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dundalk attack 1.19 + Sligo Rovers defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sligo Rovers scores more
38%
level
28%
Dundalk scores more
33%

Sligo Rovers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sligo Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
S. PowerSligo RoversSligo Rovers · M
8.5

Match Events

24'
R. BensonPenalty
43'
Niall Morahan
55'
Eoin Kenny
62'
L. Pearce← C. Malley
69'
W. Waweru↳ S. Power
71'
J. Gullan← E. Kenny
71'
D. Keane← J. Hakiki
72'
K. Barlow← W. Waweru
75'
Hayden Cann
76'
E. ChapmanPenalty
77'
B. Faulkner← R. OKane
84'
N. Garbett← R. Benson
84'
R. Mahon← D. Horgan

Possession

57%Sligo

Shots

15Sligo

Pass accuracy

53%Sligo

Statistics

SligoDundalk
Overview
57%Possession43%
15Total Shots12
4Corners7
12Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots12
6On Target5
7Off Target4
2Blocked3
12Inside Box9
3Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
327Total Passes245
232Accurate Passes152
71%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Premier Division: Sligo Rovers 2–1 Dundalk

Sligo Rovers beat Dundalk 2-1 in Premier Division on September 21, 2024.

Goals: R. Benson (24' pen), W. Waweru (69'), E. Chapman (76' pen).

Sligo Rovers controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Showgrounds in Sligo.