Dundalk 1–0 Sligo Rovers: Result & Stats

Dundalk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sligo Rovers

D. Horgan 54'

6/13/2024

Premier Division · Round 21Oriel Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Dundalk51%

×Draw25%

Sligo Rovers24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundalkExpected goals in this matchSligo Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.02

Dundalk

1.60

Sligo Rovers

1.02

Dundalk creates 57% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 129 away

1.62

creates per match

1.04

1.01

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Dundalk

1.62

Sligo Rovers

1.04

allows per match

Dundalk

1.01

Sligo Rovers

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundalk+0.00on par

Sligo Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundalk ↓

Sligo Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dundalk or draw

76%

Dundalk or Sligo Rovers

75%

Draw or Sligo Rovers

49%

Winning margin

Dundalk wins by 2+

27%

Sligo Rovers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dundalk 1+ goals

80%

Dundalk 2+ goals

47%

Dundalk 3+ goals

22%

Sligo Rovers 1+ goals

64%

Sligo Rovers 2+ goals

27%

Sligo Rovers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dundalk (draw refunded)

68%

Sligo Rovers (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundalk at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.01 · 111 matches

Sligo Rovers away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.59 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundalk attack 1.62 + Sligo Rovers defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sligo Rovers attack 1.04 + Dundalk defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dundalk scores more

51%

level

25%

Sligo Rovers scores more

24%

Dundalk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. O'Kane

Dundalk · M

7.7

Match Events

25'

37'

54'

61'

62'

O. Elding← W. Fitzgerald

72'

J. Mountney← R. Benson

77'

E. Kenny← R. OKane

78'

S. Durrant← C. Elliott

86'

S. Radosavljević← C. Malley

90+5'

Sam Durrant

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DundalkSligo

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots4

10Corners2

11Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots4

3On Target0

3Off Target2

9Blocked2

11Inside Box1

4Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

396Total Passes366

275Accurate Passes233

69%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4