Sliema Wanderers 1–1 Hamrun Spartans

Sliema Wanderers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hamrun Spartans

V. Plut 52'

Raphael Lopes 58'

4/27/2025

League #393 · Closing - 2nd Phase - 4Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sliema Wanderers32%

×Draw29%

Hamrun Spartans40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sliema WanderersExpected goals in this matchHamrun Spartans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.20

Sliema Wanderers

1.04

Hamrun Spartans

1.20

Hamrun Spartans creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 32 away

1.21

creates per match

1.34

1.05

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Sliema Wanderers

1.21

Hamrun Spartans

1.34

allows per match

Sliema Wanderers

1.05

Hamrun Spartans

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sliema Wanderers+0.00on par

Hamrun Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sliema Wanderers ↓

Hamrun Spartans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sliema Wanderers or draw

60%

Sliema Wanderers or Hamrun Spartans

71%

Draw or Hamrun Spartans

68%

Winning margin

Sliema Wanderers wins by 2+

12%

Hamrun Spartans wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sliema Wanderers 1+ goals

65%

Sliema Wanderers 2+ goals

28%

Sliema Wanderers 3+ goals

9%

Hamrun Spartans 1+ goals

70%

Hamrun Spartans 2+ goals

34%

Hamrun Spartans 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sliema Wanderers (draw refunded)

44%

Hamrun Spartans (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sliema Wanderers at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Hamrun Spartans away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sliema Wanderers attack 1.21 + Hamrun Spartans defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Hamrun Spartans attack 1.34 + Sliema Wanderers defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sliema Wanderers scores more

32%

level

29%

Hamrun Spartans scores more

40%

Hamrun Spartans at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hamrun Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

C. Menacho← K. Amoustapha

31'

O. Bjelicic

45+2'

Elionay

46'

Mayron← Emerson Marcelina

52'

V. Plut

58'

Raphael Lopes

73'

D. Letherby← M. Klepač

82'

V. Plut

82'

K. Nwoko← M. Awad

82'

M. Priadun← V. Plut

85'

M. Pryadun

Sliema

Hamrun

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Plut

Wescley

Manager: P. Zammit

82'▲K. Nwoko←▼M. Awad

82'▲M. Priadun←▼V. Plut

Sliema Wanderers substitutes

NwokoPriadunAttardAgiusLauriGonçalvesBenderCauchiGauciStricklandKone

Manager: A. Zinnari

17'▲C. Menacho←▼K. Amoustapha

46'▲Mayron←▼Emerson Marcelina

73'▲D. Letherby←▼M. Klepač

Hamrun Spartans substitutes

MenachoMayronLetherbyBuhagiarCélioVellaČađenovićHiliSciclunaEllulCamilleri