Hamrun Spartans 1–0 Sliema Wanderers

Hamrun Spartans

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sliema Wanderers

D. Ceter 29'

1/10/2026

League #393 · First Stage - Top 6 - 16Tony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hamrun Spartans31%

×Draw29%

Sliema Wanderers40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamrun SpartansExpected goals in this matchSliema Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.17

Hamrun Spartans

0.98

Sliema Wanderers

1.17

Sliema Wanderers creates 19% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

0.96

creates per match

1.29

1.04

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Hamrun Spartans

0.96

Sliema Wanderers

1.29

allows per match

Hamrun Spartans

1.04

Sliema Wanderers

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamrun Spartans+0.00on par

Sliema Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamrun Spartans ↓

Sliema Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hamrun Spartans or draw

60%

Hamrun Spartans or Sliema Wanderers

71%

Draw or Sliema Wanderers

69%

Winning margin

Hamrun Spartans wins by 2+

11%

Sliema Wanderers wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hamrun Spartans 1+ goals

62%

Hamrun Spartans 2+ goals

26%

Hamrun Spartans 3+ goals

8%

Sliema Wanderers 1+ goals

69%

Sliema Wanderers 2+ goals

33%

Sliema Wanderers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hamrun Spartans (draw refunded)

43%

Sliema Wanderers (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamrun Spartans at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

Sliema Wanderers away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamrun Spartans attack 0.96 + Sliema Wanderers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Sliema Wanderers attack 1.29 + Hamrun Spartans defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hamrun Spartans scores more

31%

level

29%

Sliema Wanderers scores more

40%

Sliema Wanderers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sliema Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

29'

D. Ceter

45'

45+1'

50'

69'

S. Thioune← D. Ceter

69'

J. Cadjenovic← Ederson

76'

78'

S. Siaw← L. Montebello

81'

N. Frendo← E. Agius

84'

Jonny← N. Koffi

87'

K. Nwoko← R. Prsa

Hamrun

Sliema

22

2

7

9

10

▼

Montebell

12

▼

Prsa

17

Mamadu

18

▼

20

31

93

1

2

5

8

10

19

▼

Koffi

24

⚽

▼

Ceter

25

▼

27

91

94

Manager: Giacomo Modica

69'▲S. Thioune←▼D. Ceter

69'▲J. Cadjenovic←▼Ederson

84'▲Jonny←▼N. Koffi

Hamrun Spartans substitutes

12Camilleri98Celio3Micallef6Letherby7Attard9Thioune16Camilleri20Cadjenovic47Fanis49Jonny55Vella

Manager: Pablo Doffo

78'▲S. Siaw←▼L. Montebello

81'▲N. Frendo←▼E. Agius

87'▲K. Nwoko←▼R. Prsa

Sliema Wanderers substitutes

1Lauri25Agu5Frendo6Belfiore8Siaw14Nwoko15Alcino21Strickland70Pisani94Fernandinho27Djuric

League #393: Hamrun Spartans 1–0 Sliema Wanderers

Hamrun Spartans beat Sliema Wanderers 1-0 in League #393 on January 10, 2026.

Goals: D. Ceter (29').

The match was played at Tony Bezzina Stadium in Paola.

Hamrun Spartans vs Sliema Wanderers — League #393 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #393: Hamrun Spartans 1–0 Sliema Wanderers