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Ślęza Wrocław vs Śląsk Wrocław II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
8/19/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław37%
×Draw23%
Śląsk Wrocław II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ślęza Wrocław
1.58
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław
2.22
Śląsk Wrocław II
2.12

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław
1.13
Śląsk Wrocław II
0.94

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par
Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Śląsk Wrocław II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw
61%
Ślęza Wrocław or Śląsk Wrocław II
77%
Draw or Śląsk Wrocław II
63%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
18%
Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
79%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
47%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
21%
Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
80%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
48%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
49%
Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Śląsk Wrocław II away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.22 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.58

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.12 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more
37%
level
23%
Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
39%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Ślęza Wrocław 2–0 Śląsk Wrocław II

Ślęza Wrocław beat Śląsk Wrocław II 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław in Wrocław.