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Śląsk Wrocław II vs Ślęza Wrocław — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
3/9/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion Oporowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław II53%
×Draw22%
Ślęza Wrocław25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Śląsk Wrocław II
2.03
Ślęza Wrocław
1.35

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
2.32
Ślęza Wrocław
1.83

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
0.88
Ślęza Wrocław
1.74

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par
Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław II ↓

Ślęza Wrocław →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław II or draw
75%
Śląsk Wrocław II or Ślęza Wrocław
78%
Draw or Ślęza Wrocław
47%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
31%
Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
87%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
60%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
33%
Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
74%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
39%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
68%
Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Ślęza Wrocław away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.32 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.03

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.83 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
53%
level
22%
Ślęza Wrocław scores more
25%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Śląsk Wrocław II 4–1 Ślęza Wrocław

Śląsk Wrocław II beat Ślęza Wrocław 4-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Oporowska in Wrocław.