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Ślęza Wrocław vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
FT
2 – 1
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
4/3/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław68%
×Draw17%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ślęza Wrocław
2.67
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.21

Ślęza Wrocław creates 121% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław
2.22
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.28

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław
1.13
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
3.11

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par
Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw
85%
Ślęza Wrocław or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
83%
Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
32%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
47%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
93%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
74%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
49%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
70%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
34%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
82%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.22 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.67

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more
68%
level
17%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
15%

Ślęza Wrocław at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Ślęza Wrocław 2–1 Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Ślęza Wrocław beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław in Wrocław.