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Polonia-Stal Świdnica vs Ślęza Wrocław — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
FT
2 – 5
Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
8/22/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica25%
×Draw21%
Ślęza Wrocław54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.43
Ślęza Wrocław
2.17

Ślęza Wrocław creates 52% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 103 away

creates per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.11
Ślęza Wrocław
1.83

allows per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
2.50
Ślęza Wrocław
1.74

finishing

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par
Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia-Stal Świdnica ↓

Ślęza Wrocław →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or draw
46%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica or Ślęza Wrocław
79%
Draw or Ślęza Wrocław
75%

Winning margin

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
11%
Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
76%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
42%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
17%
Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
89%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
64%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
32%
Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Ślęza Wrocław away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.11 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.83 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
25%
level
21%
Ślęza Wrocław scores more
54%

Ślęza Wrocław at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2–5 Ślęza Wrocław

Ślęza Wrocław beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 5-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy in Świdnica.