Ślęza Wrocław 3–2 Podlesianka: Result & Stats

Ślęza Wrocław

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Podlesianka

10/20/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław53%

×Draw22%

Podlesianka25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ślęza WrocławExpected goals in this matchPodlesianka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.30

Ślęza Wrocław

1.97

Podlesianka

1.30

Ślęza Wrocław creates 52% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

2.22

creates per match

1.47

1.13

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław

2.22

Podlesianka

1.47

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław

1.13

Podlesianka

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Podlesianka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Podlesianka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw

75%

Ślęza Wrocław or Podlesianka

78%

Draw or Podlesianka

47%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+

31%

Podlesianka wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals

86%

Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals

58%

Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals

31%

Podlesianka 1+ goals

73%

Podlesianka 2+ goals

37%

Podlesianka 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)

68%

Podlesianka (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Podlesianka away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.22 + Podlesianka defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.97

Podlesianka attack 1.47 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more

53%

level

22%

Podlesianka scores more

25%

Ślęza Wrocław at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ślęza Wrocław vs Podlesianka

Ślęza Wrocław beat Podlesianka 3-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław in Wrocław.

Ślęza Wrocław vs Podlesianka — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ślęza Wrocław vs Podlesianka