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Podlesianka vs Ślęza Wrocław — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Podlesianka
Podlesianka
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
5/17/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 30Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podlesianka35%
×Draw22%
Ślęza Wrocław43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlesianka
1.64
Ślęza Wrocław
1.85

Ślęza Wrocław creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

creates per match

Podlesianka
1.53
Ślęza Wrocław
1.83

allows per match

Podlesianka
1.88
Ślęza Wrocław
1.74

finishing

Podlesianka+0.00on par
Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlesianka ↓

Ślęza Wrocław →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Podlesianka or draw
57%
Podlesianka or Ślęza Wrocław
78%
Draw or Ślęza Wrocław
65%

Winning margin

Podlesianka wins by 2+
17%
Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Podlesianka 1+ goals
81%
Podlesianka 2+ goals
49%
Podlesianka 3+ goals
23%
Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
84%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
55%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Podlesianka (draw refunded)
45%
Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlesianka at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Ślęza Wrocław away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlesianka attack 1.53 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.64

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.83 + Podlesianka defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Podlesianka scores more
35%
level
22%
Ślęza Wrocław scores more
43%

Ślęza Wrocław at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podlesianka vs Ślęza Wrocław

Ślęza Wrocław beat Podlesianka 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Podlesianka Obiekt sportowy Miejskiego Ośrodka Sportu i Rekreacji in Katowice.