Ślęza Wrocław 2–2 Piast Żmigród: Result & Stats

Ślęza Wrocław

FT

2 – 2

Piast Żmigród

5/1/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław57%

×Draw21%

Piast Żmigród23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ślęza WrocławExpected goals in this matchPiast Żmigród

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.31

Ślęza Wrocław

2.17

Piast Żmigród

1.31

Ślęza Wrocław creates 66% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 35 away

2.22

creates per match

1.49

1.13

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław

2.22

Piast Żmigród

1.49

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław

1.13

Piast Żmigród

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Piast Żmigród →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw

77%

Ślęza Wrocław or Piast Żmigród

79%

Draw or Piast Żmigród

43%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+

35%

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals

89%

Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals

64%

Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals

36%

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals

73%

Piast Żmigród 2+ goals

38%

Piast Żmigród 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)

71%

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.22 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.17

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more

57%

level

21%

Piast Żmigród scores more

23%

Ślęza Wrocław at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ślęza Wrocław vs Piast Żmigród

Ślęza Wrocław and Piast Żmigród drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław in Wrocław.

Ślęza Wrocław vs Piast Żmigród — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ślęza Wrocław vs Piast Żmigród