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Piast Żmigród vs Ślęza Wrocław — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
FT
0 – 6
Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
10/9/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Piast Żmigród34%
×Draw23%
Ślęza Wrocław43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Żmigród
1.54
Ślęza Wrocław
1.75

Ślęza Wrocław creates 14% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 103 away

creates per match

Piast Żmigród
1.34
Ślęza Wrocław
1.83

allows per match

Piast Żmigród
1.66
Ślęza Wrocław
1.74

finishing

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par
Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Żmigród ↓

Ślęza Wrocław →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Piast Żmigród or draw
57%
Piast Żmigród or Ślęza Wrocław
77%
Draw or Ślęza Wrocław
66%

Winning margin

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
16%
Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
79%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
45%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
20%
Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
83%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
52%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
44%
Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Żmigród at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

Ślęza Wrocław away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Żmigród attack 1.34 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.83 + Piast Żmigród defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Piast Żmigród scores more
34%
level
23%
Ślęza Wrocław scores more
43%

Ślęza Wrocław at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Piast Żmigród vs Ślęza Wrocław

Ślęza Wrocław beat Piast Żmigród 6-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Żmigród.