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Ślęza Wrocław vs Odra Wodzislaw — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
FT
3 – 0
Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
10/31/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław60%
×Draw20%
Odra Wodzislaw20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ślęza Wrocław
2.25
Odra Wodzislaw
1.24

Ślęza Wrocław creates 81% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław
2.22
Odra Wodzislaw
1.35

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław
1.13
Odra Wodzislaw
2.29

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par
Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw
80%
Ślęza Wrocław or Odra Wodzislaw
80%
Draw or Odra Wodzislaw
40%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
38%
Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
89%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
65%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
39%
Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
71%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
35%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
75%
Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.22 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.25

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more
60%
level
20%
Odra Wodzislaw scores more
20%

Ślęza Wrocław at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ślęza Wrocław vs Odra Wodzislaw

Ślęza Wrocław beat Odra Wodzislaw 3-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław in Wrocław.