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Odra Wodzislaw vs Ślęza Wrocław — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
9/24/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw34%
×Draw22%
Ślęza Wrocław45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Wodzislaw
1.71
Ślęza Wrocław
2.00

Ślęza Wrocław creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw
1.68
Ślęza Wrocław
1.83

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw
2.18
Ślęza Wrocław
1.74

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par
Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Ślęza Wrocław →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw
55%
Odra Wodzislaw or Ślęza Wrocław
78%
Draw or Ślęza Wrocław
66%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
17%
Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
82%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
51%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
24%
Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
86%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
59%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
43%
Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Ślęza Wrocław away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.83 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more
34%
level
22%
Ślęza Wrocław scores more
45%

Ślęza Wrocław at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Wodzislaw 3–2 Ślęza Wrocław

Odra Wodzislaw beat Ślęza Wrocław 3-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wodzisław Śląski.