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Ślęza Wrocław vs Odra Bytom Odrzański — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
11/15/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław59%
×Draw21%
Odra Bytom Odrzański20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ślęza Wrocław
2.04
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.08

Ślęza Wrocław creates 89% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław
2.22
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.03

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław
1.13
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.85

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par
Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Odra Bytom Odrzański →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw
80%
Ślęza Wrocław or Odra Bytom Odrzański
79%
Draw or Odra Bytom Odrzański
41%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
36%
Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
87%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
60%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
33%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
66%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
29%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
75%
Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.22 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.04

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.03 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more
59%
level
21%
Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
20%

Ślęza Wrocław at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Ślęza Wrocław 2–2 Odra Bytom Odrzański

Ślęza Wrocław and Odra Bytom Odrzański drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 15, 2024.

The match was played at Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław in Wrocław.