Odra Bytom Odrzański 2–1 Ślęza Wrocław

Odra Bytom Odrzański

FT

2 – 1

Ślęza Wrocław

11/4/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański36%

×Draw23%

Ślęza Wrocław41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra Bytom OdrzańskiExpected goals in this matchŚlęza Wrocław

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.65

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.54

Ślęza Wrocław

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

1.35

creates per match

1.83

1.47

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.35

Ślęza Wrocław

1.83

allows per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.47

Ślęza Wrocław

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Bytom Odrzański ↓

Ślęza Wrocław →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Odra Bytom Odrzański or draw

59%

Odra Bytom Odrzański or Ślęza Wrocław

77%

Draw or Ślęza Wrocław

64%

Winning margin

Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+

17%

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals

79%

Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals

45%

Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals

20%

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals

81%

Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals

49%

Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)

47%

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Bytom Odrzański at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Ślęza Wrocław away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.35 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.83 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more

36%

level

23%

Ślęza Wrocław scores more

41%

Ślęza Wrocław at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff