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Ślęza Wrocław vs Kluczbork — III Liga - Group 3 2026

Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kluczbork
Kluczbork
R. Pisarczuk 29'
P. Marcjan 21'
11/15/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 17Kompleks Pilkarski 1KS Sleza Wroclaw

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław30%
×Draw26%
Kluczbork44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ślęza Wrocław
1.18
Kluczbork
1.48

Kluczbork creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław
1.50
Kluczbork
1.71

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław
1.25
Kluczbork
0.86

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par
Kluczbork+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Kluczbork →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw
56%
Ślęza Wrocław or Kluczbork
74%
Draw or Kluczbork
70%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
12%
Kluczbork wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
69%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
33%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
12%
Kluczbork 1+ goals
77%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
43%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
41%
Kluczbork (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Kluczbork away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.50 + Kluczbork defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Kluczbork attack 1.71 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more
30%
level
26%
Kluczbork scores more
44%

Kluczbork at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
P. Marcjan
29'
R. Pisarczuk
Ślęza
Kluczbork
G. Kowalski
Manager: G. Kowalski
L. Ganowicz
Manager: L. Ganowicz

III Liga - Group 3: Ślęza Wrocław 2–0 Kluczbork

Ślęza Wrocław beat Kluczbork 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 15, 2025.

Goals: P. Marcjan (21'), R. Pisarczuk (29').

The match was played at Kompleks Pilkarski 1KS Sleza Wroclaw.