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Ślęza Wrocław vs Górnik Polkowice — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
9/6/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław48%
×Draw23%
Górnik Polkowice29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ślęza Wrocław
1.78
Górnik Polkowice
1.34

Ślęza Wrocław creates 33% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław
2.22
Górnik Polkowice
1.55

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław
1.13
Górnik Polkowice
1.33

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw
71%
Ślęza Wrocław or Górnik Polkowice
77%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
52%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
26%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
83%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
53%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
26%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
74%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
39%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
62%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.22 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.78

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more
48%
level
23%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
29%

Ślęza Wrocław at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ślęza Wrocław vs Górnik Polkowice

Ślęza Wrocław beat Górnik Polkowice 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 6, 2024.

The match was played at Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław in Wrocław.