Górnik Polkowice 2–1 Ślęza Wrocław: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ślęza Wrocław

5/1/2026

III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 29Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Górnik Polkowice42%

×Draw23%

Ślęza Wrocław34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchŚlęza Wrocław

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.54

Górnik Polkowice

1.73

Ślęza Wrocław

1.54

Górnik Polkowice creates 12% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 103 away

1.72

creates per match

1.83

1.26

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.72

Ślęza Wrocław

1.83

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.26

Ślęza Wrocław

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Ślęza Wrocław →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

66%

Górnik Polkowice or Ślęza Wrocław

77%

Draw or Ślęza Wrocław

58%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

22%

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

82%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

52%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

25%

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals

79%

Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals

45%

Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

55%

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Ślęza Wrocław away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.83 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

42%

level

23%

Ślęza Wrocław scores more

34%

Górnik Polkowice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff