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Ślęza Wrocław vs Gać Oława — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
FT
5 – 1
Gać Oława
Gać Oława
M. Stempin 78'
M. Kluzek 37'
P. Stepien 23'
R. Pisarczuk 16'
F. Olejniczak 15'
K. Stachowski 67'
5/5/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław67%
×Draw18%
Gać Oława15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ślęza Wrocław
2.40
Gać Oława
1.06

Ślęza Wrocław creates 126% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław
2.22
Gać Oława
1.00

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław
1.13
Gać Oława
2.57

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par
Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Gać Oława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw
85%
Ślęza Wrocław or Gać Oława
82%
Draw or Gać Oława
33%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
44%
Gać Oława wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
91%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
69%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
42%
Gać Oława 1+ goals
65%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
29%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
81%
Gać Oława (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.22 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.40

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more
67%
level
18%
Gać Oława scores more
15%

Ślęza Wrocław at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
F. Olejniczak
16'
R. Pisarczuk
23'
P. Stepien
37'
M. Kluzek
67'
K. Stachowski
78'
M. Stempin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Ślęza Wrocław 5–1 Gać Oława

Ślęza Wrocław beat Gać Oława 5-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 5, 2021.

Goals: F. Olejniczak (15'), R. Pisarczuk (16'), P. Stepien (23'), M. Kluzek (37'), K. Stachowski (67'), M. Stempin (78').

The match was played at Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław in Wrocław.