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Gać Oława vs Ślęza Wrocław — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gać Oława
Gać Oława
FT
2 – 2
Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
9/26/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gać Oława29%
×Draw22%
Ślęza Wrocław49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gać Oława
1.52
Ślęza Wrocław
2.03

Ślęza Wrocław creates 34% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 103 away

creates per match

Gać Oława
1.29
Ślęza Wrocław
1.83

allows per match

Gać Oława
2.23
Ślęza Wrocław
1.74

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par
Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

Ślęza Wrocław →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw
51%
Gać Oława or Ślęza Wrocław
78%
Draw or Ślęza Wrocław
71%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+
13%
Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals
78%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
45%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
20%
Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
87%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
60%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)
37%
Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Ślęza Wrocław away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.83 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gać Oława scores more
29%
level
22%
Ślęza Wrocław scores more
49%

Ślęza Wrocław at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gać Oława 2–2 Ślęza Wrocław

Gać Oława and Ślęza Wrocław drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion w Gaciu in Gać.