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Ślęza Wrocław vs Chrobry Głogów II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
F. Michalski 90' (pen)
J. Gil 84'
6/17/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław56%
×Draw23%
Chrobry Głogów II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ślęza Wrocław
1.85
Chrobry Głogów II
1.06

Ślęza Wrocław creates 75% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław
2.22
Chrobry Głogów II
1.00

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław
1.13
Chrobry Głogów II
1.47

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw
78%
Ślęza Wrocław or Chrobry Głogów II
77%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów II
44%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
32%
Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
84%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
55%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
28%
Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
65%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
29%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
72%
Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.22 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.85

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more
56%
level
23%
Chrobry Głogów II scores more
22%

Ślęza Wrocław at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'
J. Gil
90'
F. MichalskiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Ślęza Wrocław 2–0 Chrobry Głogów II

Ślęza Wrocław beat Chrobry Głogów II 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on June 17, 2023.

Goals: J. Gil (84'), F. Michalski (90' pen).

The match was played at Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław in Wrocław.