Chrobry Głogów II 1–2 Ślęza Wrocław: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Ślęza Wrocław

T. Wojciechowski 22'

V. Matheus 20'

M. Tomaszewski 16' (pen)

11/19/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II28%

×Draw20%

Ślęza Wrocław52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry Głogów IIExpected goals in this matchŚlęza Wrocław

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

2.24

Chrobry Głogów II

1.60

Ślęza Wrocław

2.24

Ślęza Wrocław creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

1.47

creates per match

1.83

2.65

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II

1.47

Ślęza Wrocław

1.83

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II

2.65

Ślęza Wrocław

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Ślęza Wrocław →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw

48%

Chrobry Głogów II or Ślęza Wrocław

80%

Draw or Ślęza Wrocław

72%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+

13%

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals

80%

Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals

47%

Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals

22%

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals

89%

Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals

65%

Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)

35%

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Ślęza Wrocław away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.83 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more

28%

level

20%

Ślęza Wrocław scores more

52%

Ślęza Wrocław at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. TomaszewskiPenalty

20'

V. Matheus

22'

T. Wojciechowski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff