Ślęza Wrocław 3–2 Chrobry Głogów: Result & Stats

Ślęza Wrocław

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Chrobry Głogów

2/1/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław45%

×Draw21%

Chrobry Głogów34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ślęza WrocławExpected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.73

Ślęza Wrocław

2.00

Chrobry Głogów

1.73

Ślęza Wrocław creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

1.67

1.80

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław

2.00

Chrobry Głogów

1.67

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław

1.80

Chrobry Głogów

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Chrobry Głogów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw

66%

Ślęza Wrocław or Chrobry Głogów

79%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów

55%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+

25%

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals

86%

Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals

59%

Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals

32%

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

82%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

52%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)

57%

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.00 + Chrobry Głogów defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.67 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more

45%

level

21%

Chrobry Głogów scores more

34%

Ślęza Wrocław at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ślęza

Chrobry

Manager: G. Kowalski

Manager: Lukasz Becella