Chrobry Głogów 1–0 Ślęza Wrocław: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ślęza Wrocław

M. Lebedynski 44'

2/9/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion GOS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chrobry Głogów61%

×Draw21%

Ślęza Wrocław18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchŚlęza Wrocław

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.03

Chrobry Głogów

2.05

Ślęza Wrocław

1.03

Chrobry Głogów creates 99% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

1.94

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.94

Ślęza Wrocław

1.00

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.06

Ślęza Wrocław

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Ślęza Wrocław →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

82%

Chrobry Głogów or Ślęza Wrocław

79%

Draw or Ślęza Wrocław

39%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

37%

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

87%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

61%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

33%

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals

64%

Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals

28%

Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

77%

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Ślęza Wrocław away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.94 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.05

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.00 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

61%

level

21%

Ślęza Wrocław scores more

18%

Chrobry Głogów at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

M. Lebedynski

Chrobry

Ślęza

Manager: Ł. Becella

Manager: G. Kowalski