Slee Juniors 2–0 Santos: Result & Stats

Slee Juniors

FT

2 – 0

Santos

1/28/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 3Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Slee Juniors65%

×Draw17%

Santos18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slee JuniorsExpected goals in this matchSantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.34

Slee Juniors

2.66

Santos

1.34

Slee Juniors creates 99% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 27 away

1.58

creates per match

0.93

1.75

allows per match

3.74

creates per match

Slee Juniors

1.58

Santos

0.93

allows per match

Slee Juniors

1.75

Santos

3.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slee Juniors+0.00on par

Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slee Juniors ↓

Santos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Slee Juniors or draw

82%

Slee Juniors or Santos

83%

Draw or Santos

35%

Winning margin

Slee Juniors wins by 2+

44%

Santos wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Slee Juniors 1+ goals

93%

Slee Juniors 2+ goals

74%

Slee Juniors 3+ goals

49%

Santos 1+ goals

74%

Santos 2+ goals

39%

Santos 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Slee Juniors (draw refunded)

79%

Santos (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slee Juniors at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Santos away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slee Juniors attack 1.58 + Santos defence 3.74 → ÷2 → 2.66

Santos attack 0.93 + Slee Juniors defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Slee Juniors scores more

65%

level

17%

Santos scores more

18%

Slee Juniors at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Slee Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff