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Santos vs Slee Juniors — Eerste Divisie 2019

Santos
Santos
FT
3 – 7
Slee Juniors
Slee Juniors
5/13/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 16Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Santos24%
×Draw17%
Slee Juniors59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos
1.94
Slee Juniors
3.02

Slee Juniors creates 56% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 12 away

creates per match

Santos
1.38
Slee Juniors
2.25

allows per match

Santos
3.79
Slee Juniors
2.50

finishing

Santos+0.00on par
Slee Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Slee Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Santos or draw
41%
Santos or Slee Juniors
83%
Draw or Slee Juniors
76%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+
12%
Slee Juniors wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals
86%
Santos 2+ goals
58%
Santos 3+ goals
30%
Slee Juniors 1+ goals
95%
Slee Juniors 2+ goals
80%
Slee Juniors 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)
29%
Slee Juniors (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 3.79 · 29 matches

Slee Juniors away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.38 + Slee Juniors defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Slee Juniors attack 2.25 + Santos defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 3.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Santos scores more
24%
level
17%
Slee Juniors scores more
59%

Slee Juniors at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Slee Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santos vs Slee Juniors

Slee Juniors beat Santos 7-3 in Eerste Divisie on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.