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Slee Juniors vs FC Inter Wanica — Eerste Divisie 2019

Slee Juniors
Slee Juniors
FT
1 – 2
FC Inter Wanica
FC Inter Wanica
7/16/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 24Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Slee Juniors53%
×Draw21%
FC Inter Wanica26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slee Juniors
2.13
FC Inter Wanica
1.46

Slee Juniors creates 46% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 60 away

creates per match

Slee Juniors
1.58
FC Inter Wanica
1.17

allows per match

Slee Juniors
1.75
FC Inter Wanica
2.68

finishing

Slee Juniors+0.00on par
FC Inter Wanica+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slee Juniors ↓

FC Inter Wanica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Slee Juniors or draw
74%
Slee Juniors or FC Inter Wanica
79%
Draw or FC Inter Wanica
47%

Winning margin

Slee Juniors wins by 2+
31%
FC Inter Wanica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slee Juniors 1+ goals
88%
Slee Juniors 2+ goals
63%
Slee Juniors 3+ goals
35%
FC Inter Wanica 1+ goals
77%
FC Inter Wanica 2+ goals
43%
FC Inter Wanica 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Slee Juniors (draw refunded)
67%
FC Inter Wanica (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slee Juniors at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

FC Inter Wanica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.68 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slee Juniors attack 1.58 + FC Inter Wanica defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.13

FC Inter Wanica attack 1.17 + Slee Juniors defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slee Juniors scores more
53%
level
21%
FC Inter Wanica scores more
26%

Slee Juniors at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Slee Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Slee Juniors 1–2 FC Inter Wanica

FC Inter Wanica beat Slee Juniors 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.