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FC Inter Wanica vs Slee Juniors — Eerste Divisie 2019

FC Inter Wanica
FC Inter Wanica
FT
2 – 1
Slee Juniors
Slee Juniors
4/1/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 11Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Inter Wanica29%
×Draw19%
Slee Juniors51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Inter Wanica
1.84
Slee Juniors
2.46

Slee Juniors creates 34% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 12 away

creates per match

FC Inter Wanica
1.19
Slee Juniors
2.25

allows per match

FC Inter Wanica
2.67
Slee Juniors
2.50

finishing

FC Inter Wanica+0.00on par
Slee Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Inter Wanica ↓

Slee Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

FC Inter Wanica or draw
49%
FC Inter Wanica or Slee Juniors
81%
Draw or Slee Juniors
71%

Winning margin

FC Inter Wanica wins by 2+
15%
Slee Juniors wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

FC Inter Wanica 1+ goals
84%
FC Inter Wanica 2+ goals
55%
FC Inter Wanica 3+ goals
28%
Slee Juniors 1+ goals
91%
Slee Juniors 2+ goals
70%
Slee Juniors 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

FC Inter Wanica (draw refunded)
36%
Slee Juniors (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Inter Wanica at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.67 · 57 matches

Slee Juniors away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Inter Wanica attack 1.19 + Slee Juniors defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.84

Slee Juniors attack 2.25 + FC Inter Wanica defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Inter Wanica scores more
29%
level
19%
Slee Juniors scores more
51%

Slee Juniors at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slee Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: FC Inter Wanica 2–1 Slee Juniors

FC Inter Wanica beat Slee Juniors 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.