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Slee Juniors vs Bintang Lair — Eerste Divisie 2019

Slee Juniors
Slee Juniors
CANC
23:00
Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
6/14/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 21Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Slee Juniors60%
×Draw18%
Bintang Lair22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slee Juniors
2.60
Bintang Lair
1.53

Slee Juniors creates 70% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

creates per match

Slee Juniors
1.58
Bintang Lair
1.31

allows per match

Slee Juniors
1.75
Bintang Lair
3.63

finishing

Slee Juniors+0.00on par
Bintang Lair+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slee Juniors ↓

Bintang Lair →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Slee Juniors or draw
78%
Slee Juniors or Bintang Lair
82%
Draw or Bintang Lair
40%

Winning margin

Slee Juniors wins by 2+
39%
Bintang Lair wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slee Juniors 1+ goals
92%
Slee Juniors 2+ goals
73%
Slee Juniors 3+ goals
47%
Bintang Lair 1+ goals
78%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
45%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Slee Juniors (draw refunded)
73%
Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slee Juniors at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Bintang Lair away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slee Juniors attack 1.58 + Bintang Lair defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.60

Bintang Lair attack 1.31 + Slee Juniors defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Slee Juniors scores more
60%
level
18%
Bintang Lair scores more
22%

Slee Juniors at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slee Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slee Juniors vs Bintang Lair — Match Preview

Slee Juniors face Bintang Lair on June 14, 2023 in this Eerste Divisie fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Slee Juniors host Bintang Lair at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.