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Bintang Lair vs Slee Juniors — Eerste Divisie 2019

Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
CANC
23:00
Slee Juniors
Slee Juniors
3/1/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 8Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bintang Lair26%
×Draw18%
Slee Juniors56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bintang Lair
2.03
Slee Juniors
2.97

Slee Juniors creates 46% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

creates per match

Bintang Lair
1.56
Slee Juniors
2.25

allows per match

Bintang Lair
3.69
Slee Juniors
2.50

finishing

Bintang Lair+0.00on par
Slee Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bintang Lair ↓

Slee Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Bintang Lair or draw
44%
Bintang Lair or Slee Juniors
82%
Draw or Slee Juniors
74%

Winning margin

Bintang Lair wins by 2+
13%
Slee Juniors wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Bintang Lair 1+ goals
87%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
60%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
33%
Slee Juniors 1+ goals
95%
Slee Juniors 2+ goals
79%
Slee Juniors 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
32%
Slee Juniors (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bintang Lair at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

Slee Juniors away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bintang Lair attack 1.56 + Slee Juniors defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.03

Slee Juniors attack 2.25 + Bintang Lair defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bintang Lair scores more
26%
level
18%
Slee Juniors scores more
56%

Slee Juniors at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Slee Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bintang Lair face Slee Juniors (Eerste Divisie)

Eerste Divisie returns with Bintang Lair hosting Slee Juniors. Match starts March 1, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bintang Lair host Slee Juniors at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.