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Slavonija Požega vs Vihor — League #217 2026

Slavonija Požega
Slavonija Požega
FT
3 – 1
Vihor
Vihor
10/26/2019League #217League #217 · East - 11Stadion Kraj Orljave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Slavonija Požega72%
×Draw15%
Vihor13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavonija Požega
2.83
Vihor
1.14

Slavonija Požega creates 148% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

creates per match

Slavonija Požega
3.50
Vihor
1.28

allows per match

Slavonija Požega
1.00
Vihor
2.17

finishing

Slavonija Požega+0.00on par
Vihor+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavonija Požega ↓

Vihor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Slavonija Požega or draw
87%
Slavonija Požega or Vihor
85%
Draw or Vihor
28%

Winning margin

Slavonija Požega wins by 2+
51%
Vihor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slavonija Požega 1+ goals
94%
Slavonija Požega 2+ goals
77%
Slavonija Požega 3+ goals
53%
Vihor 1+ goals
68%
Vihor 2+ goals
32%
Vihor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slavonija Požega (draw refunded)
85%
Vihor (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavonija Požega at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Vihor away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavonija Požega attack 3.50 + Vihor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.83

Vihor attack 1.28 + Slavonija Požega defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Slavonija Požega scores more
72%
level
15%
Vihor scores more
13%

Slavonija Požega at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Slavonija Požega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #217: Slavonija Požega 3–1 Vihor

Slavonija Požega beat Vihor 3-1 in League #217 on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Orljave in Požega.