Slavonija Požega 3–0 NAŠK Našice: Result & Stats

Slavonija Požega

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

NAŠK Našice

4/4/2025

League #217 · East - 21Stadion Kraj Orljave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slavonija Požega82%

×Draw12%

NAŠK Našice6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavonija PožegaExpected goals in this matchNAŠK Našice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

0.73

Slavonija Požega

2.96

NAŠK Našice

0.73

Slavonija Požega creates 305% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 21 away

3.50

creates per match

0.71

0.75

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Slavonija Požega

3.50

NAŠK Našice

0.71

allows per match

Slavonija Požega

0.75

NAŠK Našice

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavonija Požega+0.00on par

NAŠK Našice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavonija Požega ↓

NAŠK Našice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Slavonija Požega or draw

94%

Slavonija Požega or NAŠK Našice

88%

Draw or NAŠK Našice

18%

Winning margin

Slavonija Požega wins by 2+

62%

NAŠK Našice wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Slavonija Požega 1+ goals

95%

Slavonija Požega 2+ goals

79%

Slavonija Požega 3+ goals

55%

NAŠK Našice 1+ goals

52%

NAŠK Našice 2+ goals

17%

NAŠK Našice 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Slavonija Požega (draw refunded)

93%

NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavonija Požega at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

NAŠK Našice away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavonija Požega attack 3.50 + NAŠK Našice defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.96

NAŠK Našice attack 0.71 + Slavonija Požega defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Slavonija Požega scores more

82%

level

12%

NAŠK Našice scores more

6%

Slavonija Požega at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Slavonija Požega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff