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NAŠK Našice vs Slavonija Požega — League #217 2026

NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
FT
1 – 2
Slavonija Požega
Slavonija Požega
11/18/2023League #217League #217 · East - 14Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

NAŠK Našice40%
×Draw22%
Slavonija Požega38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAŠK Našice
1.77
Slavonija Požega
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 7 away

creates per match

NAŠK Našice
1.25
Slavonija Požega
2.14

allows per match

NAŠK Našice
1.29
Slavonija Požega
2.29

finishing

NAŠK Našice+0.00on par
Slavonija Požega+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAŠK Našice ↓

Slavonija Požega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

NAŠK Našice or draw
62%
NAŠK Našice or Slavonija Požega
78%
Draw or Slavonija Požega
60%

Winning margin

NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
21%
Slavonija Požega wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
83%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
53%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
26%
Slavonija Požega 1+ goals
82%
Slavonija Požega 2+ goals
51%
Slavonija Požega 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
51%
Slavonija Požega (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAŠK Našice at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Slavonija Požega away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAŠK Našice attack 1.25 + Slavonija Požega defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Slavonija Požega attack 2.14 + NAŠK Našice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NAŠK Našice scores more
40%
level
22%
Slavonija Požega scores more
38%

NAŠK Našice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "NAŠK Našice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #217: NAŠK Našice 1–2 Slavonija Požega

Slavonija Požega beat NAŠK Našice 2-1 in League #217 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Našice.