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Slavonija Požega vs Bedem Ivankovo — League #217 2026

Slavonija Požega
Slavonija Požega
FT
4 – 3
Bedem Ivankovo
Bedem Ivankovo
11/25/2023League #217League #217 · East - 15Stadion Kraj Orljave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Slavonija Požega70%
×Draw16%
Bedem Ivankovo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavonija Požega
2.65
Bedem Ivankovo
1.10

Slavonija Požega creates 141% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Slavonija Požega
3.50
Bedem Ivankovo
1.20

allows per match

Slavonija Požega
1.00
Bedem Ivankovo
1.80

finishing

Slavonija Požega+0.00on par
Bedem Ivankovo+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavonija Požega ↓

Bedem Ivankovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Slavonija Požega or draw
86%
Slavonija Požega or Bedem Ivankovo
84%
Draw or Bedem Ivankovo
30%

Winning margin

Slavonija Požega wins by 2+
48%
Bedem Ivankovo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slavonija Požega 1+ goals
93%
Slavonija Požega 2+ goals
74%
Slavonija Požega 3+ goals
48%
Bedem Ivankovo 1+ goals
67%
Bedem Ivankovo 2+ goals
30%
Bedem Ivankovo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slavonija Požega (draw refunded)
84%
Bedem Ivankovo (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavonija Požega at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Bedem Ivankovo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavonija Požega attack 3.50 + Bedem Ivankovo defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.65

Bedem Ivankovo attack 1.20 + Slavonija Požega defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Slavonija Požega scores more
70%
level
16%
Bedem Ivankovo scores more
14%

Slavonija Požega at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Slavonija Požega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #217: Slavonija Požega 4–3 Bedem Ivankovo

Slavonija Požega beat Bedem Ivankovo 4-3 in League #217 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Orljave in Požega.