Bedem Ivankovo 5–4 Slavonija Požega: Result & Stats

Bedem Ivankovo

FT

5 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Slavonija Požega

5/31/2025

League #217 · East - 30Igralište Grac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bedem Ivankovo44%

×Draw19%

Slavonija Požega37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bedem IvankovoExpected goals in this matchSlavonija Požega

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

2.32

Bedem Ivankovo

2.52

Slavonija Požega

2.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

2.75

creates per match

2.14

2.50

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Bedem Ivankovo

2.75

Slavonija Požega

2.14

allows per match

Bedem Ivankovo

2.50

Slavonija Požega

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bedem Ivankovo+0.00on par

Slavonija Požega+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bedem Ivankovo ↓

Slavonija Požega →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Bedem Ivankovo or draw

63%

Bedem Ivankovo or Slavonija Požega

81%

Draw or Slavonija Požega

56%

Winning margin

Bedem Ivankovo wins by 2+

26%

Slavonija Požega wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bedem Ivankovo 1+ goals

92%

Bedem Ivankovo 2+ goals

71%

Bedem Ivankovo 3+ goals

45%

Slavonija Požega 1+ goals

90%

Slavonija Požega 2+ goals

67%

Slavonija Požega 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Bedem Ivankovo (draw refunded)

54%

Slavonija Požega (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bedem Ivankovo at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Slavonija Požega away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bedem Ivankovo attack 2.75 + Slavonija Požega defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.52

Slavonija Požega attack 2.14 + Bedem Ivankovo defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bedem Ivankovo scores more

44%

level

19%

Slavonija Požega scores more

37%

Bedem Ivankovo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bedem Ivankovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff