Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slavoj Vyšehrad vs Artis — FNL 2019

Slavoj Vyšehrad
Slavoj Vyšehrad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Artis
Artis
5/30/2020FNLFNL · Round 19Stadion Evžena Rošického

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Slavoj Vyšehrad30%
×Draw24%
Artis46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Vyšehrad
1.27
Artis
1.62

Artis creates 28% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 103 away

creates per match

Slavoj Vyšehrad
1.32
Artis
1.28

allows per match

Slavoj Vyšehrad
1.96
Artis
1.21

finishing

Slavoj Vyšehrad+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Vyšehrad ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Slavoj Vyšehrad or draw
54%
Slavoj Vyšehrad or Artis
76%
Draw or Artis
70%

Winning margin

Slavoj Vyšehrad wins by 2+
13%
Artis wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Slavoj Vyšehrad 1+ goals
72%
Slavoj Vyšehrad 2+ goals
36%
Slavoj Vyšehrad 3+ goals
14%
Artis 1+ goals
80%
Artis 2+ goals
48%
Artis 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Vyšehrad (draw refunded)
40%
Artis (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Vyšehrad at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Vyšehrad attack 1.32 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Artis attack 1.28 + Slavoj Vyšehrad defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slavoj Vyšehrad scores more
30%
level
24%
Artis scores more
46%

Artis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Artis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Slavoj Vyšehrad 1–1 Artis

Slavoj Vyšehrad and Artis drew 1-1 in FNL on May 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Evžena Rošického in Praha.