Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Artis vs Slavoj Vyšehrad — FNL 2019

Artis
Artis
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Slavoj Vyšehrad
Slavoj Vyšehrad
11/25/2020FNLFNL · Round 9Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Artis60%
×Draw23%
Slavoj Vyšehrad17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artis
1.83
Slavoj Vyšehrad
0.86

Artis creates 113% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 28 away

creates per match

Artis
1.53
Slavoj Vyšehrad
0.64

allows per match

Artis
1.09
Slavoj Vyšehrad
2.14

finishing

Artis+0.00on par
Slavoj Vyšehrad+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Slavoj Vyšehrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Artis or draw
83%
Artis or Slavoj Vyšehrad
77%
Draw or Slavoj Vyšehrad
40%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+
35%
Slavoj Vyšehrad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals
84%
Artis 2+ goals
54%
Artis 3+ goals
28%
Slavoj Vyšehrad 1+ goals
58%
Slavoj Vyšehrad 2+ goals
21%
Slavoj Vyšehrad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)
78%
Slavoj Vyšehrad (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Slavoj Vyšehrad away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Slavoj Vyšehrad defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.83

Slavoj Vyšehrad attack 0.64 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Artis scores more
60%
level
23%
Slavoj Vyšehrad scores more
17%

Artis at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Artis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Artis 4–2 Slavoj Vyšehrad

Artis beat Slavoj Vyšehrad 4-2 in FNL on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion SK Líšeň in Brno.