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Slavoj Trebišov vs Poprad — 2. liga 2019

Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Poprad
Poprad
4/24/20212. liga2. liga · Round 26Štadión Slavoj Trebišov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Slavoj Trebišov56%
×Draw23%
Poprad21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Trebišov
1.85
Poprad
1.04

Slavoj Trebišov creates 78% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 25 away

creates per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.45
Poprad
0.80

allows per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.27
Poprad
2.24

finishing

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par
Poprad+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Trebišov ↓

Poprad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slavoj Trebišov or draw
79%
Slavoj Trebišov or Poprad
77%
Draw or Poprad
44%

Winning margin

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
32%
Poprad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
84%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
55%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
28%
Poprad 1+ goals
65%
Poprad 2+ goals
28%
Poprad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
73%
Poprad (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Trebišov at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Poprad away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Trebišov attack 1.45 + Poprad defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.85

Poprad attack 0.80 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Slavoj Trebišov scores more
56%
level
23%
Poprad scores more
21%

Slavoj Trebišov at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Slavoj Trebišov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavoj Trebišov vs Poprad

Slavoj Trebišov beat Poprad 3-0 in 2. liga on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Slavoj Trebišov in Trebišov.