Poprad 2–0 Slavoj Trebišov: Result & Stats

Poprad

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slavoj Trebišov

9/20/2019

2. liga · Round 9Futbalový štadion NTC Poprad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Poprad37%

×Draw23%

Slavoj Trebišov41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PopradExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Trebišov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.77

Poprad

1.67

Slavoj Trebišov

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 69 away

1.33

creates per match

0.97

2.58

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Poprad

1.33

Slavoj Trebišov

0.97

allows per match

Poprad

2.58

Slavoj Trebišov

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poprad+0.00on par

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poprad ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Poprad or draw

59%

Poprad or Slavoj Trebišov

77%

Draw or Slavoj Trebišov

63%

Winning margin

Poprad wins by 2+

18%

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Poprad 1+ goals

81%

Poprad 2+ goals

50%

Poprad 3+ goals

23%

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals

83%

Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals

53%

Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Poprad (draw refunded)

47%

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poprad at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.58 · 24 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poprad attack 1.33 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.67

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Poprad defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Poprad scores more

37%

level

23%

Slavoj Trebišov scores more

41%

Slavoj Trebišov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slavoj Trebišov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff