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Slavoj Trebišov vs Partizán Bardejov — 2. liga 2019

Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Partizán Bardejov
Partizán Bardejov
3/12/20222. liga2. liga · Round 20Štadión Slavoj Trebišov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Slavoj Trebišov52%
×Draw24%
Partizán Bardejov24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Trebišov
1.67
Partizán Bardejov
1.04

Slavoj Trebišov creates 61% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 38 away

creates per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.45
Partizán Bardejov
0.82

allows per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.27
Partizán Bardejov
1.89

finishing

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par
Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Trebišov ↓

Partizán Bardejov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slavoj Trebišov or draw
76%
Slavoj Trebišov or Partizán Bardejov
76%
Draw or Partizán Bardejov
48%

Winning margin

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
28%
Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
81%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
50%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
23%
Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals
65%
Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals
28%
Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
69%
Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Trebišov at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Partizán Bardejov away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Trebišov attack 1.45 + Partizán Bardejov defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Partizán Bardejov attack 0.82 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slavoj Trebišov scores more
52%
level
24%
Partizán Bardejov scores more
24%

Slavoj Trebišov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slavoj Trebišov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Slavoj Trebišov 2–2 Partizán Bardejov

Slavoj Trebišov and Partizán Bardejov drew 2-2 in 2. liga on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión Slavoj Trebišov in Trebišov.