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Partizán Bardejov vs Slavoj Trebišov — 2. liga 2019

Partizán Bardejov
Partizán Bardejov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
4/7/20212. liga2. liga · Round 21Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Partizán Bardejov48%
×Draw25%
Slavoj Trebišov27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizán Bardejov
1.54
Slavoj Trebišov
1.09

Partizán Bardejov creates 41% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 69 away

creates per match

Partizán Bardejov
1.08
Slavoj Trebišov
0.97

allows per match

Partizán Bardejov
1.21
Slavoj Trebišov
2.01

finishing

Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par
Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizán Bardejov ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Partizán Bardejov or draw
73%
Partizán Bardejov or Slavoj Trebišov
75%
Draw or Slavoj Trebišov
52%

Winning margin

Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+
24%
Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals
79%
Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals
45%
Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals
20%
Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
66%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
30%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)
64%
Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizán Bardejov at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.08 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.54

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Partizán Bardejov defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Partizán Bardejov scores more
48%
level
25%
Slavoj Trebišov scores more
27%

Partizán Bardejov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Partizán Bardejov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Partizán Bardejov 1–1 Slavoj Trebišov

Partizán Bardejov and Slavoj Trebišov drew 1-1 in 2. liga on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov in Bardejov.