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Slavoj Olympia Bruntál vs Nový Jičín — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
FT
1 – 1
Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
10/3/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 10Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál37%
×Draw23%
Nový Jičín40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.62
Nový Jičín
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 62 away

creates per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.36
Nový Jičín
1.24

allows per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.19
Nový Jičín
1.87

finishing

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par
Nový Jičín+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál ↓

Nový Jičín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or draw
60%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or Nový Jičín
77%
Draw or Nový Jičín
63%

Winning margin

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
18%
Nový Jičín wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
80%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
48%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
22%
Nový Jičín 1+ goals
82%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
51%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
48%
Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.19 · 47 matches

Nový Jičín away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.87 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 1.36 + Nový Jičín defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.62

Nový Jičín attack 1.24 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
37%
level
23%
Nový Jičín scores more
40%

Nový Jičín at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nový Jičín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1–1 Nový Jičín

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál and Nový Jičín drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál in Bruntál.