Nový Jičín 3–2 Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Nový Jičín

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

5/21/2022

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 23Stadion TJ Nový Jičín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Nový Jičín59%

×Draw20%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nový JičínExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Olympia Bruntál

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.18

Nový Jičín

2.16

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

1.18

Nový Jičín creates 83% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 45 away

1.61

creates per match

0.89

1.47

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Nový Jičín

1.61

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

0.89

allows per match

Nový Jičín

1.47

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nový Jičín+0.00on par

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nový Jičín ↓

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Nový Jičín or draw

80%

Nový Jičín or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

80%

Draw or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

41%

Winning margin

Nový Jičín wins by 2+

37%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nový Jičín 1+ goals

88%

Nový Jičín 2+ goals

63%

Nový Jičín 3+ goals

36%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals

69%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals

33%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nový Jičín (draw refunded)

75%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nový Jičín at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.47 · 59 matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nový Jičín attack 1.61 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.16

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 0.89 + Nový Jičín defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Nový Jičín scores more

59%

level

20%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more

20%

Nový Jičín at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Nový Jičín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff