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Slavoj Olympia Bruntál vs Karviná II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
FT
1 – 7
HT: 1 – 3
Karviná II
Karviná II
5/7/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 21Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál23%
×Draw20%
Karviná II57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.42
Karviná II
2.28

Karviná II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 30 away

creates per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.36
Karviná II
2.37

allows per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.19
Karviná II
1.47

finishing

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par
Karviná II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál ↓

Karviná II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or draw
43%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or Karviná II
80%
Draw or Karviná II
77%

Winning margin

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
10%
Karviná II wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
76%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
41%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
17%
Karviná II 1+ goals
90%
Karviná II 2+ goals
66%
Karviná II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
29%
Karviná II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.19 · 47 matches

Karviná II away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 1.36 + Karviná II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Karviná II attack 2.37 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
23%
level
20%
Karviná II scores more
57%

Karviná II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1 – 7 Karviná II

Karviná II beat Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 7-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál in Bruntál.