Karviná II 6–1 Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Karviná II

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

9/24/2022

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 8Stadion Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Karviná II75%

×Draw15%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karviná IIExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Olympia Bruntál

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

0.96

Karviná II

2.77

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

0.96

Karviná II creates 189% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 45 away

2.84

creates per match

0.89

1.03

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Karviná II

2.84

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

0.89

allows per match

Karviná II

1.03

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karviná II+0.00on par

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná II ↓

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Karviná II or draw

89%

Karviná II or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

85%

Draw or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

25%

Winning margin

Karviná II wins by 2+

54%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Karviná II 1+ goals

94%

Karviná II 2+ goals

76%

Karviná II 3+ goals

51%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals

62%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals

25%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Karviná II (draw refunded)

88%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná II at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná II attack 2.84 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.77

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 0.89 + Karviná II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Karviná II scores more

75%

level

15%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more

11%

Karviná II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff